Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.019627 0.022254 0.025107 0.028437 0.032220 0.036385 0.041320
2025-06-01 0.015549 0.019170 0.023447 0.028878 0.035599 0.043655 0.054065
2025-06-08 0.013042 0.017017 0.021987 0.028668 0.037435 0.048574 0.063846
2025-06-15 0.011678 0.015962 0.021575 0.029485 0.040376 0.054895 0.075805
2025-06-22 0.010022 0.014255 0.020028 0.028497 0.040654 0.057544 0.082924
2025-06-29 0.008892 0.013106 0.019061 0.028121 0.041619 0.061084 0.091471
2025-07-06 0.007798 0.011869 0.017813 0.027157 0.041556 0.063037 0.097759
2025-07-13 0.007376 0.011573 0.017889 0.028131 0.044429 0.069530 0.111467
2025-07-20 0.006943 0.011205 0.017804 0.028821 0.046883 0.075547 0.124938
2025-07-27 0.006602 0.010944 0.017848 0.029695 0.049674 0.082295 0.140180
2025-08-03 0.006085 0.010341 0.017282 0.029499 0.050656 0.086132 0.150843
2025-08-10 0.005666 0.009860 0.016865 0.029502 0.051948 0.090556 0.162865
2025-08-17 0.005195 0.009257 0.016205 0.029050 0.052448 0.093733 0.173128
2025-08-24 0.004913 0.008962 0.016053 0.029482 0.054566 0.099954 0.189564
2025-08-31 0.004562 0.008508 0.015575 0.029269 0.055464 0.104014 0.202290
2025-09-07 0.004394 0.008374 0.015661 0.030103 0.058384 0.112056 0.223415
2025-09-14 0.003995 0.007769 0.014821 0.029094 0.057660 0.113079 0.230736
2025-09-21 0.003714 0.007366 0.014328 0.028710 0.058115 0.116405 0.242977
2025-09-28 0.003388 0.006847 0.013568 0.027725 0.057266 0.117045 0.249680
2025-10-05 0.003311 0.006822 0.013775 0.028720 0.060563 0.126375 0.275662
2025-10-12 0.003207 0.006730 0.013842 0.029425 0.063305 0.134775 0.300409
2025-10-19 0.003127 0.006683 0.013993 0.030318 0.066521 0.144440 0.328870
2025-10-26 0.002948 0.006410 0.013652 0.030118 0.067324 0.148942 0.346032